Wednesday, May 13, 2009

2009 MLB Predictions NL

2009 MLB Predictions

Well folks, spring training is here. Another interesting off season that saw, Manny still being Manny, the record book saviour, A-Rod was discovered to be juicer, and The Kid Ken Griffey, Jr. go home to Seattle.
On the A-Rod steroid story, here’s my take: Suddenly, the BBWAA think all the players of the so-called “Steroid Era,” have questionable, if not tainted careers. If that is the case, then they ignorantly solved the issue. If they all are questionable, then the playing field was level, and nobody had the edge. Steroid-Shmeroid!!! It’s not like Walt Weiss became a slugger. It made Home Run hitters hit Home Runs further. Period.

On a lighter note, each of the next six blog posts will be my predictions (roughly) of each division and the starting line-ups and pitchers from the aforementioned division.

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves – 2009 finish: 3rd

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
2B Kelly Johnson .282 15 69 12 Derek Lowe 3.42 14-10 159
SS Yaniel Escobar .291 12 67 15 Tim Hudson 3.97 12-9 146
3B Chipper Jones .322 25 94 2 Tom Glavine 4.18 9-9 98
C Brian McCann .298 24 94 1 Jair Jurrjens 4.02 9-11 131
LF Garrett Anderson .281 16 83 4 Javier Vazquez 3.77 12-12 163
1B Casey Kotchman .292 15 82 6
RF Jeff Francoeur .261 24 96 11 Closer ERA W-L SV
CF Gregor Blanco .271 5 41 28 Mike Gonzalez 3.23 2-5 30

Florida Marlins – 2009 finish 5th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
CF Cameron Maybin .277 11 53 33 Josh Johnson 4.12 9-10 136
RF Jeremy Hermida .279 20 74 8 Ricky Nolasco 3.36 12-11 151
SS Hanley Ramirez .313 32 90 36 Anibal Sanchez 4.42 7-13 102
1B Jorge Cantu .274 26 101 4 Chris Volstad 4.03 8-16 125
2B Dan Uggla .257 31 91 7 Andrew Miller 4.49 6-10 109
LF Cody Ross .280 22 76 10
3B Dallas McPherson .263 29 89 1 Closer ERA W-L SV
C John Baker .289 8 47 3 Matt Lindstrom 3.10 2-4 29

New York Mets – 2009 finish 2nd

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
SS Jose Reyes .295 15 66 55 Johan Santana 2.74 16-9 237
2B Luis Castillo .272 1 37 9 John Maine 3.97 13-10 147
3B David Wright .309 32 114 27 Oliver Perez 4.01 14-11 159
CF Carlos Beltran .280 28 106 21 Mike Pelfrey 3.71 12-8 137
1B Carlos Delgado .265 30 105 1 Tim Redding 4.19 9-10 128
RF Ryan Church .273 18 65 6
LF Daniel Murphy .281 11 50 11 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Brian Schneider .249 7 42 1 F. Rodriguez 2.31 1-6 40

Philadelphia Phillies – 2009 finish 1st

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
SS Jimmy Rollins .292 20 74 44 Cole Hamels 2.97 18-7 228
CF Shane Victorino .289 15 62 35 Brett Myers 3.54 15-9 194
2B Chase Utley .316 31 113 8 Jamie Moyer 4.24 13-10 136
1B Ryan Howard .277 49 137 1 Joe Blanton 4.09 14-11 145
LF Raul Ibanez .288 26 106 6 Kyle Kendrick 4.41 11-8 101
RF Jayson Werth .274 27 89 22
3B Pedro Feliz .257 17 69 1 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Carlos Ruiz .253 7 47 7 Brad Lidge 2.02 2-2 39

Washington Nationals – 2009 finish 4th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
SS Christian Guzman .281 8 49 19 Daniel Cabrera 4.01 10-10 174
CF Lastings Milledge .279 20 81 29 Scott Olsen 3.98 11-14 151
3B Ryan Zimmerman .274 26 94 5 Matt Chico 4.18 9-8 131
1B Adam Dunn .253 40 104 2 Shawn Hill 3.74 10-11 143
RF Elijah Dukes .264 27 85 12 John Lannan 4.42 8-12 102
LF Josh Willingham .277 21 71 3
2B Ronnie Belliard .293 10 52 2 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Jesus Flores .249 13 57 0 Joel Hanrahan 3.39 1-5 26

Of course there may be some injuries along the way, but I’ve researched a lot to come to these conclusions. We’ll see in October if I’m anywhere close. Enjoy…


NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs – 2009 finish: 1st

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
LF Alfonso Soriano .286 36 86 27 Carlos Zambrano 3.42 14-10 159
SS Ryan Theriot .292 4 51 17 Rich Harden 3.97 12-9 146
1B Derrek Lee .306 25 92 8 Ted Lilly 4.18 9-9 98
3B Aramis Ramirez .294 31 114 3 Ryan Dempster 4.02 9-11 131
RF Milton Bradley .315 19 67 1 Angel Guzman 3.77 12-12 163
C Geovany Soto .281 26 88 3
CF Kosuke Fukudome .279 13 61 16 Closer ERA W-L SV
2B Mike Fontenot .289 5 38 8 Kevin Gregg 3.23 2-5 30

Cincinnati Reds – 2009 finish 5th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
CF Willy Taveras .263 2 36 65 Aaron Harang 3.08 13-12 203
SS Alex Gonzalez .258 14 56 6 Edison Volquez 3.41 13-10 218
2B Brandon Phillips .280 25 80 31 Bronson Arroyo 4.01 10-12 169
1B Joey Votto .283 29 90 4 Micah Owings 4.31 8-13 132
RF Jay Bruce .277 31 100 15 Homer Bailey 4.69 3-9 68
3B Edwin Encarnacion .261 25 78 6
LF Chris Dickerson .278 11 63 9 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Ramon Hernandez .273 16 66 0 F. Cordero 2.97 1-4 35

Houston Astros – 2009 finish 4th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
2B Kaz Matsui .292 5 39 22 Roy Oswalt 3.18 16-10 183
CF Michael Bourn .269 8 48 56 Mike Hampton 4.07 8-7 103
1B Lance Berkman .304 32 113 7 Brandon Backe 3.61 12-11 158
LF Carlos Lee .300 33 117 3 Wandy Rodriguez 3.95 10-11 152
RF Hunter Pence .281 28 96 18 Brian Moehler 4.22 8-10 112
SS Miguel Tejada .290 20 81 5
3B Geoff Blum .260 12 56 7 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Ivan Rodriguez .272 10 55 2 Jose Valverde 2.41 3-3 42

Milwaukee Brewers – 2009 finish 3rd

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
2B Rickie Weeks .268 18 57 25 Jeff Suppan 4.14 12-12 132
SS J.J. Hardy .278 25 76 12 Braden Looper 3.71 13-11 161
LF Ryan Braun .294 39 112 17 Manny Parra 3.97 9-10 129
1B Prince Fielder .283 38 116 0 Chris Capuano 3.88 6-5 69
CF Mike Cameron .258 22 73 15 Dave Bush 3.91 10-12 136
RF Corey Hart .288 24 94 26
3B Bill Hall .263 17 61 10 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Jason Kendall .259 0 46 1 Trevor Hoffman 2.61 2-4 33

Pittsburgh Pirates – 2009 finish 6th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
CF Nate McLouth .291 25 85 31 Ian Snell 4.09 10-9 171
2B Freddy Sanchez .296 9 64 9 Zach Duke 3.92 9-15 156
1B Adam LaRoche .279 29 93 1 Paul Maholm 4.17 9-10 163
C Ryan Doumit .303 18 75 4 Jeff Karstens 4.63 7-14 101
RF Eric Hinske .267 19 62 3 Tyler Yates 4.16 8-12 113
LF Brandon Moss .284 18 71 22
3B Andy LaRoche .275 14 60 13 Closer ERA W-L SV
SS Jack Wilson .281 7 51 15 Matt Capps 2.97 2-6 27

St. Louis Cardinals – 2009 finish 2nd

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
2B Skip Schumaker .282 10 56 22 Adam Wainwright 3.61 14-9 126
CF Rick Ankiel .263 31 86 1 Kyle Lohse 3.78 11-8 159
1B Albert Pujols .336 40 124 2 Cris Carpenter 3.42 12-6 109
RF Ryan Ludwick .276 32 105 5 Joel Pineiro 4.02 12-10 145
3B Troy Glaus .265 23 70 0 Todd Wellemeyer 4.23 7-7 92
SS Khalil Greene .261 22 73 9
LF Chris Duncan .258 18 56 0 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Yadier Molina .286 8 55 4 Chris Perez 3.12 3-8 25

Of course there may be some injuries along the way, but I’ve researched a lot to come to these conclusions. We’ll see in October if I’m anywahere close. Enjoy…

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2009 finish: 2nd

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
2B Felipe Lopez .284 13 64 25 Brandon Webb 3.17 16-9 186
SS Stephen Drew .293 25 87 23 Dan Haren 3.04 14-9 197
CF Chris Young .266 26 75 22 Jon Garland 3.86 13-10 153
LF Conor Jackson .292 18 83 3 Doug Davis 4.36 10-11 132
RF Justin Upton .289 28 88 12 Max Scherzer 4.22 8-8 98
1B Chad Tracy .272 16 71 1
3B Mark Reynolds .251 25 85 2 Closer ERA W-L SV
C Chris Snyder .271 16 69 1 John Rauch 3.29 4-6 25

Colorado Rockies – 2009 finish 5th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
CF Ryan Spilborghs .293 16 61 21 Jeff Francis 3.72 13-12 179
LF Seth Smith .278 15 59 6 Aaron Cook 4.11 12-10 172
1B Todd Helton .311 13 73 0 Jason Marquis 4.87 9-13 133
3B Garrett Atkins .304 25 103 2 Greg Smith 4.39 8-14 142
RF Brad Hawpe .290 27 101 6 Ubaldo Jimenez 3.81 9-10 163
SS Troy Tulowitzki .282 21 81 11
C Chris Iannetta .280 17 63 3 Closer ERA W-L SV
2B Clint Barmes .282 14 59 16 Huston Street 2.74 2-4 33

Los Angeles Dodgers – 2009 finish 1st

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
SS Rafael Furcal .293 14 58 24 Chad Billingsley 3.22 17-9 226
2B Orlando Hudson .282 10 61 18 Randy Wolf 3.86 13-10 161
RF Andre Ethier .287 23 86 8 Claudio Vargas 4.01 11-10 137
LF Manny Ramirez .309 33 118 2 Jason Schmidt 3.55 9-5 101
CF Matt Kemp .286 26 102 20 Clayton Kershaw 3.92 9-6 123
1B James Loney .304 19 89 5
C Russell Martin .287 15 76 9 Closer ERA W-L SV
3B Casey Blake .267 18 70 3 Jonathan Broxton 2.45 4-4 32

San Diego Padres – 2009 finish 3rd

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
2B David Eckstein .285 2 39 16 Jake Peavey 2.98 14-10 236
CF Jody Gerut .283 18 70 19 Chris Young 3.26 12-10 201
RF Brian Giles .301 12 71 2 Cha Seung Baek 4.46 7-15 115
1B Adrian Gonzalez .279 32 112 1 Mark Prior 3.56 5-9 71
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff .269 24 81 3 Kevin Correia 4.26 6-12 83
LF Chase Headley .277 25 83 7
C Nick Hundley .264 12 54 0 Closer ERA W-L SV
SS Luis Rodriguez .253 5 44 13 Trevor Hoffman 2.61 2-4 33

San Francisco Giants – 2009 finish 4th

Pos Player Avg. HR RBI SB Starter ERA W-L SO
RF Randy Winn .291 10 64 11 Tim Lincecum 2.77 15-8 253
SS Edgar Renteria .296 11 71 13 Matt Cain 3.62 11-10 171
LF Fred Lewis .277 16 75 28 Barry Zito 4.34 10-11 156
C Benji Molina .279 15 80 0 Randy Johnson 3.49 10-8 173
1B Travis Ishikawa .282 23 89 5 Noah Lowrie 4.46 7-13 126
CF Aaron Rowand .289 17 79 12
3B Pablo Sandoval .284 15 68 0 Closer ERA W-L SV
2B Kevin Frandsen .271 7 43 8 Brian Wilson 2.94 3-5 37


Of course there may be some injuries along the way, but I’ve researched a lot to come to these conclusions. We’ll see in October if I’m anywahere close. Enjoy…

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Why Barry Bonds is Not on Steroids

"This Guy makes some good points. I don’t necessarily agree with them, but I find them interesting." - Luke
This was written before Barry Bonds broke the all-time HR record.

Why Barry Bonds is Not on Steroids

By DAVE ZIRIN

It was the ultimate slap in the face: Barry Bonds on the cover of Sports Illustrated last month with The Asterisk resting on his head.

The Asterisk is the most dreaded of statistical addendums. It howls that the marked achievement emits a whiff of the tainted.

When Roger Maris surpassed Babe Ruth and hit 61 home runs, AL Commissioner Ford Frick - who as a young man was Ruth's biographer, food-taster, and boot-black - affixed an asterisk to the mark because Maris had played in 162 games, to Ruth's 154. Frick removed it after fans from the Bronx started bringing signs to the games telling Frick to "Kiss our Asterisks!"

When the San Antonio Spurs won the NBA title last year, their second in five years, and the clock counted down to zero, the play-by-play announcer yelped, 'This one has no asterisk!' referencing the fact that their first title was won during the 1998-1999 strike shortened season.

For Sports Illustrated to hang the asterisk on Bonds was to publicly call history's greatest baseball career into question.

For the entire 1990s, Bonds averaged 34 homers and 36 steals, but that was just for warm ups. At 37, in 2001, he hit a record 73 home runs; at 38 he batted .370 with an ungodly .585 on base percentage; at 39 he won his sixth MVP, hitting 45 home runs in only 390 at bats.

Now he is poised to pass Willie Mays, Babe Ruth and Henry Aaron to become the all-time home run champ. We should be marveling at his accomplishments, planning the tales to tell our children about the mighty Bonds. Instead, a concerted effort led by MLB owners, is leading an anti-Bonds PR campaign that Cubs Manager Dusty Baker likened to "McCarthyism." While Bonds and Yankee Jason Giambi probably won't be confused with Ethel and Julius Rosenberg any time soon, there is enough media and congressional hot air to steam an army of dumplings.

Reports about Bonds' body: how wide his back, how big his jaw, how thick his legs - basically dissecting the man like an animal - pepper the papers. Never mind that Bonds has maintained that he has never taken any banned substance. Never mind that other than the 73 home run year, Bonds - like Aaron - has never even hit 50. Never mind that Bonds' trainer, indicted for steroid distribution, has maintained Bonds' innocence even though such a juicy snitch would keep him out of the clink. Never mind that unlike Giambi, who showed up at training camp this year looking like Aly McBeal, Bonds has maintained his current physical shape for a decade, and even gained 6 pounds this off season. Never mind how common it is for all athletes, like Michael Jordan to Shaquille O'Neal, to thicken with age.

Never mind all of that. The greatest case for reasonable doubt lies in Bonds' very late career success. His unparalleled middle-aged majesty screams his innocence. Steroids and rapid "unnatural" muscle growth puts tremendous pressure on the joints and tendons. Admitted steroid users like former MVPS Ken Caminiti and Jose Canseco, Lenny Dykstra and banned substance user Mark McGwire all saw their bodies break down as they hit their mid 30s. In the end, they limped away from their careers and were put down like Seabiscuit in Elmer's Glue Land. Bonds has thrived as he hurtles toward 40, not unlike Jerry Rice, Bret Favre, Reggie Miller, and Randy Johnson. To go by the rumors that surround him, Bonds' ankles should be snapping like toothpicks every time he jogs to first base.

But the media has been crushing Bonds without evidence because he has never played their game. If Jordan was the Tom Hanks of the NBA, Bonds is Sean Penn, beating down the paparazzi and challenging perceptions of greatness against our will. To some, this is his greatest sin: not the power numbers, but that they threaten the place in history of the immortal Babe Ruth.

I heard one sports radio chatterbox remark, "Even if Bonds isn't on steroids he is a freak, with his trainers, and supplements, and work out regimens. The Babe would drink a keg, eat a steak, and hit three home runs, Let's see Bonds do that." Therefore Bonds' very commitment to not being the oozing glutton that was Ruth is a knock against him. This is also revisionist history. Ruth was known to have all kinds of 1920s home remedies injected in his system for increased potency (I assume in the field). Ruth has also never been tagged with an asterisk despite the fact he never had to play against competition with black skin, or travel farther than the Mississippi to play. I would love to have seen Ruth face Satchel Paige in a sweltering San Juan double header. Bonds has produced in an era of the global talent pool, cross-country travel, and intense media scrutiny. But none of this will prepare him for the glaring intensity in his face this year. Whether the anti-steroid furies are motivated to "protect the game", crush the players union, or target Bonds - the fact remains: muscle enhancers cannot slam a 95 mph slider into McCovey Cove. Barry Bonds can - Selig can kiss his asterisk.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Phils ruin Media's Dream Series

Phils ruin Media's Dream Series
10/16/08
By Luke Desiato

If you know me, you probably know that I'm not a big Media fan. The Political agendas, the Biases, Jim Grey, and the list goes on.
That being said, let me congratulate my Fightin' Phils for shutting up Foxsports.com's total bias, Manny Ramirez/Dodgers loving Kevin Kennedy who said that the Dodgers were clearly the better team in picking them to win in six. The media was salivating for a Manny vs. Boston World Series and no one loves that dream being squashed more than yours truly.

For the entire series, we heard Joe Buck and Tim McCarver gushing over Ramirez like lovesick school girls which made it so much more satisfying that we ended it quickly. Don't get me wrong, I think Manny Ramirez is the Best right-handed hitter since Hank Aaron. (Save Albert Pujols, but he has a lot more career ahead of him)
I mean the guy drove in 165 runs in 147 games in 1999. He is a career .315 hitter, with 527 home runs, and 1,725 RBI and 28 postseason homers. By comparison, after 15 seasons, Hank Aaron had 510 HR, and 1,627 RBI. Barry Bonds, 494-1,405, get the picture? This guy is a Hall of Fame lock. A model of consistency. But as far as we are concerned right now, we couldn't stand him.

Manny aside, LA-Boston is apparently a better "story" than Philly-Tampa. What is that crap? What's a better story than the two worst franchises in history going at it. I for one, love it. It's not like it's Kansas City-Pittsburgh, you're getting some of baseball's best young players in Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard versus Scott Kasmir, Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford. These guys are anything but second rate. Howard is baseball's premier run producer, Utley is the premier second baseman, Rollins is the reigning NL MVP and probably the best all around shortstop, Hamels is one of the best pitchers, and Brad Lidge is the top closer. On the Tampa side, you have Crawford, who has more stolen bases than anyone since 2003, Longoria is probably Rookie of the Year, and Kasmir is, well Kasmir. The most talked about, yet underachieving pitcher.

In closing, I encourage everyone to enjoy this series, because the Phils finally get a shot at baseball immortality. It's nice to see two teams built on the back of their own farm systems rather than free agent assembled teams go for the title.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

You're Living in a Dream World: Why a Wide Receiver doesn't Win the Super Bowl

by Luke Desiato

I know everyone in Philly pines for the days of Donovan to T.O. But I have a compelling argument that pretty much denounces the myth that we would have won a Super Bowl by now. It's pretty simple, so here goes,

2005) Donovan plays the first 7 games with T.O. and a sports hernia. At that point, the Eagles are 4-3 and lost to the mediocre Denver Broncos 49-21. Two weeks later Donovan has season ending surgery and is replaced by pretty much the worst QB in Eagles history in Mike McMahon (Remember him? That guy we were excited about because of one Thanksgiving game in 2001 that, oh yes, he did not win?)

So Reason number 1: A Sports Hernia and Mike McMahon are still a Sports Hernia and Mike McMahon. Add T.O. and we Probably have been 8-8 or 9-7. But no Donovan means no Super Bowl.

2006) Donovan has an MVP first half. But in week 10, tears his ACL. Add to the fact that we can't stop the run and the Eagles are 5-5. Jeff Garcia comes in (much to the dismay of the idiot Angelo Cataldi influenced fan base) and goes 5-1 as starter and the Eagles win the division, beat the Giants and lose to New Orleans because we can't stop the run. By the way, Dallas has T.O. and get knocked out in the first round.

So Reason number 2: Had T.O. not left, Jeff Garcia would never have come here and I can't imagine A.J. Feeley guiding us all the way. Plus T.O. couldn't stop Deuce McAllister either. So torn ACL and Deuce McAllister are still torn ACL and Deuce McAllister. Again no Super Bowl.

2007) Donovan Returns, albeit not 100%. He plays slower and more tentative. Reluctant to air it out. I still can't figure out that 56-21, 158.3 passer rating game against Detroit. He has an unspectacular season. A.J. makes two starts and loses both (I know he almost beat New England but remember that HIS bad decision making caused two scoring drives.)Feeley: 2 starts, 7 picks. Donovan returns at 100% and wins the final three including T.O.'s boys, and that team that Garcia couldn't beat. Meanwhile Dallas again loses their first playoff game, with T.O.

So Reason number 3: Donovan is still recovering from an ACL injury. And if T.O. was here, Westbrook doesn't run for 1,333 yards and catch 90 balls. We may have won one more game, but a knee injury and Feeley's picks, are still a knee injury and Feeley's picks. Again no Super Bowl.

And there you have it. T.O. hasn't done any more for Dallas because despite superb Regular Season play, they still haven't won squat.And if I'm not mistaken, Cincinnati and Arizona have the best receiving corps. and they are lousy every year. New England had the best air attack ever. They Lost!!

Basically in a nut shell, Coaching, Defense, Quarterbacks, and Character win Super Bowls. Not Wide Receivers. No receiver in the Hall of Fame, had a lousy Quarterback. They had guys by the names of Montana, Young, Aikman, Moon, Bradshaw and Unitas throwing to them.